Speaker
Description
The METIS Coronagraph onboard Solar Orbiter observes simultaneously in Visible (VL) band between 580 and 640 nm and Ultraviolet (UV) band at 121.6 nm. It observes at a high spatial and temporal resolution, thus, allowing a comprehensive analysis of solar events.
In particular, the Metis team is creating a database of solar eruptive events observed in both the VL and UV channels. The CME Catalogue now has more than three years worth of data, from November 2020 to December 2023 and is actively being updated.
We track the events that could be geoeffective, and could therefore be linked with various space weather phenomena. Here, we describe the work being done in identifying these events from the Metis CME catalog. The first step is to identify events that can be potentially geoeffective. Then, the identification is refined by applying the triangulation method where the Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are fitted using the Graduated Cylindrical Shell (GCS) model. This results in accurate measurement of the position, speed and direction of propagation of the CMEs. For this purpose, along with the VL Channel data from Metis, white light coronagraph data from LASCO C2 and STEREO COR2A were also used.
Furthermore, we employ the physics based empirical models like Drag-Based Model (DBM) and Drag-Based Ensemble Model (DBEM), WSA-Enlil and EUHFORIA to predict the times of arrival on Earth. In this work, I will present a complete analysis for some Metis observed geoeffective events identified from the catalogue (including some work in progress) while comparing the predicted results with the in-situ measurements at Earth (and other S/Cs). Finally, on the basis of these comparisons made, we plan to assess the relative forecasting capabilities of the propagation models employed.
